Dodgers should close door on Broxton

Baseball Betting Lines

08/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre didn't mention whether Jonathan Broxton would remain his closer after Thursday's heartbreaking loss in south Philadelphia.

Maybe it's too early to speculate, but if this is Torre's last hurrah in Hollywood he probably wants to go out a winner.

Broxton is not making that happen.

In fact, he has come up small in enormous opportunities several times in the past few years. Broxton's ugly side reared its ugly head when he suffered his fifth blown save of the season in last night's 10-9 loss to the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. He allowed four runs -- three earned -- and two walks without retiring a batter to blow a seven-run advantage.

This wasn't the first time the big right-hander was victimized by the Phillies in his career. In fact, it was the third time after Matt Stairs clubbed an eventual game-winning home run in the 2008 NLCS, followed by a clutch double by Jimmy Rollins in Game 4 of the 2009 NLCS. Broxton was asked following the game if any of those thoughts entered his mind last night.

"No," said Broxton on the team's website. "Whatever happened last year, happened last year. I wasn't thinking about that at all."

He's got some tough skin if losing to the Phillies in the last two National League Championship Series doesn't have any mental effect.

Torre mentioned after blowing a seemingly comfortable lead it was a 'tough pill to swallow', while Casey Blake, who saw a groundball roll under his legs in the ninth inning, stated that the mood in the clubhouse is not great right now.

Blake and any other player in the majors should know that every pitcher, starter or reliever, will struggle through meltdowns. Broxton is going through his struggles and could also be hiding an injury. It didn't show last night when his fastball was clocked at 98 mph, but consistency is key. Broxton was all over the place in the loss and it leaves the confidence level among both the players and coaches frayed.

Broxton, who had converted 16-of-18 save chances at one point this season and even saved a win for the National League in July's All-Star Game, is 4-4 with a 3.50 earned run average, 60 strikeouts and 21 saves. It doesn't appear as if he'll be able to match or surpass his career-mark of 36 saves established last season. If Torre makes a switch at closer, then Broxton will definitely not hit the mark.

"Let the smoke clear before you get me to say something I haven't thought about," Torre quipped on the team's site. "He's a big boy, he'll be all right. Long-term, I'm not worried about him."

Torre may not be worried about Broxton, but what about the fan base?

The Dodgers are nine games off the National League West lead, a division they have won in each of the previous two seasons, and sit 6 1/2 games behind in the wild card race. They have lost two in a row and 10 of their last 15 games and will now pay a visit to the frisky NL East-leading Atlanta Braves for four games at Turner Field.

With Broxton's perceived loss of self assurance, the Dodgers could look to Hong-Chih Kuo or Octavio Dotel as the new closer and put Broxton in the set-up role. Dotel recorded 21 saves in 41 games with Pittsburgh before joining Los Angeles at the trade deadline. Dotel has appeared in four games with the Dodgers, totaling 3 1/3 innings pitched and a 5,40 earned run average.

Kuo is second on the team with three saves in 38 relief appearances this season and was a representative for the NL in this past All-Star Game. Ronald Belisario, George Sherrill or Kenley Jansen are other options Torre can exercise in the closer's role if he decides to give up on Broxton.

Belisario, however, allowed four late runs on Thursday to put the Phillies in winning position. The rookie Jansen has appeared in eight games this season and has yet to allow a run in 7 1/3 innings. Los Angeles is really high on this young righty and perhaps his time will come sooner rather than later.

"It sounds crazy, but in spring training I thought I might get up by September," Jansen told the team's site. "I didn't think it would be July, but they have confidence in me, and I'm not afraid of being here. I feel comfortable here."

That's more than what the organization can say about Broxton right now.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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