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09/03/2010 - Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Barkley tied a school record by throwing for five touchdowns, as 14th-ranked Southern California beat Hawaii, 49-36, giving Lane Kiffin a victory in his coaching debut with the Trojans.
Ronald Johnson caught three scoring passes and returned a punt 89 yards for another TD for the Trojans, who posted their 13th straight win in a season opener.
Despite being ranked to start the season and with high aspirations, the Trojans won't be going to a bowl game. They were hit with a two-year postseason ban as a result of violations stemming from former USC standout football player Reggie Bush and basketball star O.J. Mayo.
Marc Tyler ran for 154 yards and a touchdown for the Trojans (1-0), who are 7-0 all-time against Hawaii.
Barkley, who led USC to an Emerald Bowl win over Boston College last December, completed 18-of-23 passes for 257 yards.
Kiffin, previously an assistant at USC, left Tennessee unceremoniously after just one year and took over for Pete Carroll who once again has jumped to the NFL, this time with the Seahawks.
Bryant Moniz connected on 18-of-36 passes for 269 yards and a score for the Warriors (0-1), but he left the game in the third quarter after taking a blow to the head on a hit from USC linebacker Michael Morgan.
The Warriors rolled up 588 yards of offense, but couldn't give head coach Greg McMackin a win as he began a third season with Hawaii, which is coming off a 6-7 campaign. Included in the big offensive showing were three receivers going over 100 yards. Greg Salas caught eight balls for 124, Royce Pollard seven for 106, and Kealoha Pilares five for 176 and three touchdowns.
Moniz suffered a cut to his right elbow after being hit hard by Morgan during a 13-yard scramble to the USC five. Brent Rausch replaced Moniz and the Warriors scored on a one-yard run from Alex Green, getting Hawaii within 34-23 with 1:54 left in the quarter.
Barkley, though, quickly struck back, hitting Stanley Havili for 49 yards, and then finding Johnson for a three-yard score with 27 seconds left in the third. Mitch Mustain's run accounted for the two-point conversion.
Shane Austin's 65-yard TD pass to Pilares had Hawaii knocking on the door again with 6:48 left in the game, but just 13 seconds later, Tyler broke off a 44-yard TD run.
Pilares and Austin hooked up from 30 yards away with under four minutes left.
Barkley threw 46 yards to David Ausberry for a TD nearly five minutes into the game. Kiffin brought out an odd formation for a two-point conversion try, but Mustain's pass went awry.
Scott Enos kicked a 24-yard field goal, but Barkley's one-yard TD pass to Johnson and the subsequent two-point conversion by the pair widened USC's lead to 14-3 with 1:38 left in the opening quarter.
It became 20-3 when Barkley passed to Rhett Ellison for a six-yard score early in the second.
Enos kicked a 40-yard field goal and the Warriors made it a seven-point spread after Pilares broke a tackle on the way to a 56-yard catch-and-run for a TD with nearly three minutes left in the half.
Hawaii's defense again failed, though, as Barkley hit Johnson for a 13-yard score with 1:06 remaining.
A big replay with 12 seconds left in the first half was the difference between a touchdown and a field goal for the Warriors. Salas caught a short pass and was tackled by linebacker Malcolm Smith near the goal line. Salas seemed to reach the ball over the plane, but officials ruled the ball short after the replay. The crowd of 44,204 went wild when they thought referee Bill Athan signaled touchdown, but instead he was showing how short the ball was from the goal line. Enos ended up kicking an 18-yard field goal for a 27-16 margin.
Johnson bolted down the right sideline for his TD punt return midway through the third quarter.
Game Notes
USC is 30-1 against current Western Athletic Conference teams...The Trojans have won 17 straight non-conference games...This was the first of a school- record seven road outings for the Trojans this year...Hawaii is 15-35 all-time against members of the Pac-10 Conference...Austin completed 6-of-9 passes for 141 yards...Johnson ended with seven catches for 59 yards.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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